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CASCADE Conformal Prediction: Uncertainty-Adaptive Prediction Intervals for Two-Stage Clinical Decision Support

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Effective medication management in Parkinson's Disease (PD) is challenging due to heterogeneous disease progression, variable patient response, and medication side effects. While AI models can forecast levodopa equivalent daily dose (LEDD) as a measure of medication needs, standard uncertainty quantification often fails to communicate the reliability of these predictions, treating high and low confidence clinical decisions identically. We introduce CASCADE (Calibrated Adaptive Scaling via Conformal And Distributional Estimation), a novel conformal prediction framework that propagates epistemic uncertainty from a screening classifier to adapt downstream predictions. Unlike standard conformal methods that rely on auxiliary residual regression, we leverage epistemic uncertainty from a primary classification task (identifying whether a medication change is needed) to dynamically scale the prediction intervals of a secondary regression task (predicting how much change). By mapping Venn-Abers multi-probabilistic uncertainty directly to non-conformity scores, our framework achieves continuous risk adaptation. We demonstrate that this ``cascade effect'' produces highly efficient intervals for confident patients (38.9% narrower than standard conformal baselines) while automatically expanding intervals to ensure robust coverage for uncertain cases, bridging the gap between discrete clinical decision-making and continuous dose forecasting in PD.


7 sciatica stretches and exercises for pain relief

Popular Science

More information Adding us as a Preferred Source in Google by using this link indicates that you would like to see more of our content in Google News results. Simple could help ease your pain. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. Sciatica afflicts millions of people each year--though not as many people as they have it . A growing catchall term among the undiagnosed for all manner of back problems, sciatica is a specific lower-back nerve condition that requires specific action to address. "Early detection matters," John Gallucci Jr. MS, ATC, PT, DPT, the CEO of JAG Physical Therapy, tells .


Hierarchical Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis of Longitudinal Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In many longitudinal studies, a large number of variables are measured repeatedly over time, with substantial missing data. Existing methods, such as probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA), are ill-equipped to handle such incomplete, high-dimensional longitudinal data, as they fail to account for the nested sources of variation and temporal dependency inherent in repeated measures. We introduce hierarchical probabilistic principal component analysis (HPPCA), a two-level probabilistic factor model that explicitly separates between-subject variance from time-varying within-subject dynamics. The within-subject latent factors are modeled by a Gaussian process. We develop an EM algorithm to handle missing data and flexible covariance kernels, accelerated by computationally efficient initializers. Simulation studies demonstrated that HPPCA robustly recovers model parameters subspaces and substantially outperforms both standard PPCA and multivariate functional PCA in imputation accuracy, even under heavy missingness and model misspecification. An application to the long COVID symptoms in the Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery adult cohort revealed that HPPCA effectively captured the data's hierarchical structure and its learned features significantly improved the prediction of clinical outcomes and the recovery of masked clinical records compared to exisiting methods.


7 hamstring stretches recommended by a physical therapist

Popular Science

The best ways to maximize mobility and even prevent back pain. Walk, work and wake better with these hamstring stretches. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. We have some news you're gonna want to sit down for--but you probably shouldn't: Your hamstrings are, in all likelihood, an anatomical disaster for a number of possible reasons, not least of which being excessive time spent seated on them. "The hamstrings are three muscles located on the back of your thigh, and they're responsible for bending your knee and extending your hip," says Marissa Cummo, PT, DPT, assistant director of physical therapy at NYC Health + Hospitals Bellevue .


Best Massage Guns of 2026: Hyperice, Therabody, and More

WIRED

Massage guns used to be simple percussive devices. Now, they use vibrations, hot and cold therapy, and even LED light to ease post-workout pain and promote muscle recovery. Massage guns relieve muscle tension and increase blood flow for faster recovery . In her words, "As we exercise, we cause breakdown within the muscle fibers, which in turn stimulates muscle growth and regrowth, hypertrophy, and strength." After consulting the experts and testing them on myself pre-and post-workout, I've rounded up a lineup of the best massage guns, like our top pick, the Hyperice Hypervolt 2 ($229) .


Best Home Gym Setup (2026): Adjustable Weights, Resistance Bands, and More

WIRED

Lifting weights can keep you carrying groceries and riding bikes even as you get older. To join or not to join a gym: That is the question. If you opt out of building a home gym, you can join a club and have access to more weights and machines. Friends and classes motivate you to keep coming, and that monthly bill keeps you disciplined. On the other hand, gym memberships are steep, workouts can get hijacked by bullies, and going to the gym is an additional commute.




Y ouTubePD: A Multimodal Benchmark for Parkinson's Disease Analysis Supplementary Material

Neural Information Processing Systems

We include all our annotations and extracted landmarks. This ensures that we uphold the highest standards of ethical data usage. In Table A1, we summarize the severity label distribution in Y ouTubePD. We also summarize the demographic distribution in Y ouTubePD, split between PD-positive and healthy control (HC), or PD-negative, subjects. This decision is based on the clinician's suggestion, since an accurate UPDRS facial expression rating would require more This strategy also allows for a finer classification.